Prediction of Covid-19 Cases in Central Java using the Autoregressive (AR) Method

Since the beginning of Covid-19 case in Indonesia March 2020, more than 6 million confirmed cases had been confirmed. The rapid development this can be accessed through covid19.go.id page. In Central Java province, as July 6, 2022, reached 628,393 people, with number recovered patients reaching 594,783 people and dying many 33,215 people. With data, a prediction is needed to help government anticipate an increase Province. This study aims create forecasting model using Autoregressive (AR) method by optimizing function parameters. Then Mean Squared Error (MSE) analyze results data errors. are best parameter functions on AR (30) smallest MSE. Furthermore, predictions made from 1 August 30, showing